Broad Market Outlook
Shake called it perfectly on the last Chart Talk
where after a 10% run up off lows, the market needs some type of pull back or consolidation, which is exactly what we saw this week as the broad market pulled back graciously while some individual names were not as polite during there own pull backs.
As he said last week that most charts are just wacked, I feel that is a perfect description, as its a virtual pot luck of chart patterns right now. There are names that are shaking out prior days lows to rip it into new highs by end of day, names opening weak and then just puking out below as if there is no tomorrow and still a small handful of names that are defying gravity as they continue to rock to new highs.
Names might look like garage at 10am then look like prom kings or queen by the close and vice versa.
March as a group was our best PnL Month in over a year, I lost track of the exact number after hitting $700,000+ in PnL posts for the month. The last time we had such a feasty one that was almost close to a million in gains in one month was back in January 2022.
For those that had amazing months, Mr Moon, Django, Higgins, are a few that come to mind, big shout out to you guys for killer months and everyone else who also had very impressive returns.
After a big run, we start to get over confident, the game planning gets a little sloppy, and a few extra trades get put on because you feel you are trading with house money.
This is your money you made, you earned it, be stingy with it, guard it, hell take some money out of your account and make the gains real by doing something or buying something you wanted. There is often this weird disconnect with money when you don't physically touch it from time to time.
I was talking with someone recently who just lost his life savings in some worthless stock ($70k loss), I mentioned in the conversation that it was too bad he didn't just buy a Porsche instead. Which he thought would have been impossible or improbable but losing $70,000 in a happy meal stock was.
As Jesse Livermore use to do (legend goes) that at the end of each trading year, he would lock himself in his banks vault with his trading profits and do an annual trade review and physically touch his gains making it feel real.
If you truly had a record breaking PnL month this month, make it real and reward yourself and do not feel ashamed or bad about it.
Taking even a week off can do wonders after a monster run that will give you the time and clarity to come back sharp and focused.
Macro Rotation Outlook