Big Picture Disrespected Retest

   
   
   
 
Broad Market Outlook
The market has been on an absolute tear from the last tiny pull back we saw at the beginning of October and since blew through the retest climbing 10% higher in under a month. 
To say the markets appetite for risk and impatience is high would be an understatement, scanning the market some sectors and markets look like momentum stocks given the insane runs recently.  
Given the fact that the broad market broke through the retest, it seems stocks have been following suit.
  
NVDA is up more then 50% this month alone with earnings in a week as it blew right through the retest. TSLA another one, similar story. 
Inched towards the retest then rocked higher trading nearly 60% higher in the last month.
When we start to see this, it stems from investors and traders lack of patience, I even caught myself smiling as I was taking screen shots of all the major ETFs that we buy weekly using M1 as virtually all have gone on some impressive runs. 
Looking at this chart of the consumer discretionary sector its hard to remember this is a basket of stocks and not an individual name as its traded 20% higher in the last month.
 
Just when traders start to get impatient and start to chase names are often when rules can be broken and breaking rules eventually turns into costly mistakes. 
While the market is closed, this is a great time to look over your positions and play some defense.
If the market wants to continue higher that is great, but what if it needs to pull back?
What if this is the short term high for some time? If so, at least we don't have to give back too much of this impressive run. 
We all know how stocks take the stairs up and the elevators down, yet when most stocks all start taking the elevator up, they sometimes can bungee jump right back down in a blink. Just make sure your safety equipment is properly attached. 
 
 
                                                                                     
 
 
 
From Ben G
 

 

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Macro Rotation Outlook

 
SPY
 
Dow Jones
Nasdaq 
 
Mid Caps 
 
Small Caps
 
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Sector Rotation
Sensitive -  sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions. 

Tech
 
Energy 
Industrial
Telecom
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
 
Materials
Consumer Discretionary
 
Financials
REIT
 
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
 
Consumer Staples
Healthcare
Bio Tech
 
Utilities
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Big Picture Set Up
 
ABNB
A big earnings day for ABNB trading more then 12% higher, we are now about 10% away from the retest and quite frankly getting there much sooner then I anticipated. I plan to take some profits if/when we retest that 220 area. 
 
DIS
Was really expecting this base to break to the downside and for now we need to wait and see what happens with earnings. If it does gap up through 180 earnings may be just whats needed to push it out of this base. If it gaps down under this $168 area, will be a big avoid for some time. 
 
GS
GS failed this week at the 4th attempt through that $420 where we took a 2-3% loss, now that we are out of the way we can see how far it wants to pull back and gives this name some time to set back up. 
MDB
MDB broke out of its earnings flag into new all time highs, based off the range of the prior flag the measured move should sent to towards 600 in time. For now keeping a stop vs the PLOD close to break even. 
 
NTAP
Still have almost 2 months till earnings and this name just as well might continue to flag out until then, if not, then we want to keep an eye on this 94 level. 
 
STX
So far the proper stop seems to be vs 90 for now, if you have yet to take any profits, a stop for some under the LOD could make sense. The ideal target for this trade would be to hold till the retest. 
 
TDY
With earnings out of the way and a 3 plus attempts at this 460 level, it could be getting ready for its next leg as the 200 day continues to play catch up. 
 
TRV
TRV continues to flag nicely under the blue sky breakout level with higher lows forming, its only a matter of time. 
 
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Traveling Experts

We have a few exciting experiences planned for the year ahead. We hope you find a trip that sparks your interest to come enjoy and network with other like minded members!  

Dates:

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4th Annual Vermont Trip 

  

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