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Broad Market Outlook
The wall of worry continues as the SPY puts in a textbook pivot low under $435 on Thursday and has nice follow through Friday. As the trend continues of higher lows and higher highs it pays to follow the trend.
Each day the market will try to distract us with all the reasons why we should not follow the trend. Sometimes we can brush them off, as this is often an easy feat when the market and our confidence is flagging near highs.
Yet when the opposite is true, those distractions start to seem much more serious when in reality they rarely are.
We have about two more weeks until the paint drying end of summer market comes to an end.
As more investors return to there computers we should expect to see volume come in.
Start stretching that mental capital because as these pull backs get smaller and smaller eventually that trend needs to break (a bigger pull back).
The most recent pull back was a measly 2% off all time highs, the prior was a tiny 4% pull back from its high at that time, the one in May was just about 5% and the one in March just cracked 6%.
All of 2021 we have yet to see a correction (10% drop). As market participant continue to enjoy the candy the market gives out as we inch higher and pull back less and less. When the bag of candy get pulled away, those corrections feel much more painful then the reality of a correction.
Be open minded to when the next correction comes and it won't scare you as you know its all part of the game. We need pull backs to propel us higher.
From Ben G
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Macro Rotation Outlook
SPY
Dow Jones
Nasdaq
MDY Mid Caps
IWM Small Caps
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Sector Rotation
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
VGT Tech
VDE Energy
VIS Industrial
VOX Telecom
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
VCR Consumer Discretionary
VFH Financials
VNQ REIT
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
VHT Healthcare
IBB Bio Tech
VPU Utilities
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Big Picture Set Up
AMZN
From the recent low to high in Amazon its in a nearly 1,000 point range, with it under the 200 day,the signs would point lower and that could give us a great opportunity for a great support buy back, if not I have no problem getting involved above the 200 day.
HON
HON still may need some time before it is ready for this Blueish sky breakout, as the 200 day continues to catch up should help give us a clue when its ready to make its decision.
MTCH
Got ticked in early on this MTCH and it still just may need to shake that $128 before it wants to head higher. For now I have a stop in vs $128 and will look to add above $136.
QRVO
As the 200 day continues to inch closer to this recent higher low, we have an added layer of probability on our side that we can get some good stock for that $200 breakout down the road.
SNAP
There may be a new $10 flag starting to form in SNAP between $70 and $80. We might be able to sneak in a feeler up through $74 however this flag may need some time so there is no need to go heavy or expect this to rocket back to $80 and then to $90 in a few days.
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4th Annual Vermont Snowboarding Trip Jan 20th-23rd
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2nd Annual Blue Ridge Rally May 13th-15th
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