Big Picture Lessons Learned

    
   
   
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Broad Market Outlook
At the beginning of the month, I am often spending a portion of my time on the phone with the members who actively update their trading journals looking to spot mistakes and focus on tasks to improve on for the month ahead. 
As a result of this, I too, need to hold myself accountable and complete said tasks to find my own blind spots and work on getting rid of those mistakes.  
After doing my own trade review, I noticed two glaring problems. 
1. Raising my stops too aggressively 
2. Not keeping an eye on recently close trades for possible re entry
 Regarding my stops, I had about a dozen swing trades that I closed out last month, had I kept the original stop (the pivot low at the time of entry), 8 of the 12 trades were at my price or higher (some much higher) while 4 of them would have failed resulting in a bigger percentage loss then the one I incurred. As a result, by simply following the original game plan, I would have made more while doing less. 
Now in hindsight, it is easy to see this and say it, yet in the moment, it can feel like a different story. We can say just give SNAP the room vs $59, yet when it sells off 6% in a day, it might not be as easy to stomach it. When in reality its the right dose of medicine.  
CMG was a perfect example of both of these glaring problems. 
When I first got into CMG the plan was simple, buy up through $1360 vs the pivot low of $1280. However over the next few days, it did not do much and I raised the stop close to break even and lost less then half a percent. Giving away a 20% winner as it marched right towards my target. 
The part 2 of this mistake was moving on from the name. 
After I got out, sure the name did trade lower, yet it never technically failed the original plan, more importantly it formed a higher pivot low and set up for the same trade again with even less risk that was legitimately defined. 
But since I was no longer watching it, it quickly drifted 20% higher with ease. If you have been trading long enough, this has happened to us all. 
We spend all that time and effort hawking a set up, only to move on at the first sign of something other then what we hoped for. Getting back on the treadmill trying to find a new set up when there is still one in front of us. 
Going over other members trade reviews, this too, came up, where the first trade failed, yet the level was still one worth buying in time. 
A simple way to remember these re entry trades, are as simple as right clicking our mouse on trading view and clicking "add alert" near that major level. 
The key part of this is that it may take weeks and even months for that failed level to really be ready, and we can basically forget about it until that alert goes off. 
My goal for the month ahead will be to focus on keeping the original game plan and setting more alerts on trades that I exit near there breakout levels to take advantage of them next time. 
What are your 2 major lessons learned from your trades last month?
                                                                                             From Ben G

 

 

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Macro Rotation Outlook

SPY
Dow Jones
Nasdaq 
MDY Mid Caps 
IWM Small Caps
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Sector Rotation
Sensitive -  sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions. 

VGT Tech
VDE Energy
 
VIS Industrial
VOX Telecom
 
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
 
VAW Materials
VCR Consumer Discretionary
VFH Financials
VNQ REIT
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
VHT Healthcare
IBB Bio Tech
VPU Utilities
 
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Big Picture Set Up
APTV
My first add in this APTV was not the best, as it pulled in and formed a higher pivot low, it gave a spot to add on better risk reward to be prepared for the $160 breakout in time. 
DIS
Was a bit early to the $180 break and it is continuing to look better with time as it continues to consolidate above the 200 day.  
GILD
GILD is still in a Stage 1 base, showing us some higher lows and holding above its 200 day moving average. Will be ready to buy $70 vs the current pivot low when that time comes. 
MMC
Stop still the same as MMC continues to hang in Blue Sky territory. 
NFLX
NFLX is doing well as it continues to hold above its 200 day and hold above its recent gap up. Still tough to find a spot to add, just holding for now with a break even stop. 
QLYS
This QLYS has been setting up for a few months now to break out through this stage 1 base up through $108, the only issue is the real out is 8% lower. Will be ready to buy the break of $108 however if the day it breaks it does not have any real follow through, I will be quick to leave the party. 
RCKT
RCKT still in a stage 1 base and added to my position after it came back to my price of $44 and held to the penny and reversed. Looking to add up through the base break through $48 when its ready to go. 
SNAP
SNAP is still in a very large macro bull flag, we have 2 real spots to know when to exit if wrong, below $59 and $48. For now it may be starting to put in a higher pivot low. In time the measured move could sent it to the $100 area. Don't burn yourself out trying to have a perfect stop vs the PLOD to miss the bigger move in time. 
WIX
Still a bit wide in this WIX, with the range being between $270 and $310, want to keep this one on the radar for when it tightens up. 
  
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Traveling Experts

We have a few exciting experiences planned for the year ahead. We hope you find a trip that sparks your interest to come enjoy and network with other like minded members!  

 

Vermont Snowboarding Jan 20th-23rd 2022 

  

14* Spots Open, reply VT to reserve your spot!

 

Can't wait to see you on the next trip!

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