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Broad Market Outlook
This week we saw the SPY inch into the gap fill that was created way back in the end of February. There is a common quote in the markets that gaps eventually get filled.
It's hard for us to remember those few months in February and March where the market felt as it had another week or two before they closed up shop for good. During the fastest percentage drop that the market has ever seen.
In the moment it sucked, yet for the bigger picture that was a massive global shakeout. What tends to happen after a shakeout? Traders try to chase higher.
I don't mean over the next week, month or even quarter, that massive shakeout has set the SPY up for a potential measured move to almost 460 over the next few years. If that sounds crazy or far fetched. Just remember the Dow has gone from 1,000 to almost 30,000 in time.
This past weekend I have a conversation with an older business owner about the markets, he mentioned how he could not wait for the market to pull back due to the next "corona scare" so he can load up.
I asked, when the market dropped a few months ago, did you take advantage then?
"no I was too scared"
So why won't you be scared next time?
"because I know what to expect"
As he said it, I could see the light bulb going off in his head as he realized that if he didn't do it this time, most likely it wont do it again next time. After he came to this realization I explained a few key points.
That more money has been lost waiting for the pull back then buying at the high and more importantly the next pull back/crash will be competently different.
After the tech bubble everyone prepared for the next tech crash, what followed was a housing crisis, then everyone prepared for the next housing crisis, and the biggest rally followed. When everyone prepared for the "trade war" crisis, it was interest rates that spooked the market, once everyone prepared for the next interest rate drop, a virus crashed the market.
As everyone prepares for the next virus to crash the market it will be something else that no one saw coming. All the while had he simply keep investing through all of it, he would have continued to make a killing.
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Macro Rotation Outlook
SPY
Dow Jones
Nasdaq
MDY Mid Caps
IWM Small Caps
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Sector Rotation
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
VGT Tech
VDE Energy
VIS Industrial
VOX Telecom
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
VCR Consumer Discretionary
VFH Financials
VNQ REIT
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
VHT Healthcare
IBB Bio Tech
VPU Utilities
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3rd Annual Trading Experts Vermont Trip!
Just doing a little practice for the $2,000 race on this up coming Vermont Trip this winter! Wait you don't know about the race?
Last year we started the 1st annual race from the peak of K1 down to the base lounge. Last year the winner would receive $1,000 cash, luckily I came in 1st by a mere half a second ahead of Ryan. Shake unfortunately came in 4th. This year we are doubling the cash bounty, $2,000 in cash for the winner!
Dates Jan 7th to 10th (Thurs to Sunday)
16 Spots Taken!
4 Spots Left!
Shoot me a DM for more info!
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Big Picture Set Ups
V
We have been keeping an eye on this $200 flag in V, I will be either buying up through $200 or buying up off support vs $185, whichever comes first!
DRI
DRI has been getting tight over the last two weeks under this $80 level, will be looking to buy up through it when it wants to go, for now stop vs $74 however we know that we will be upping to LOD once it triggers!
WSM
WSM flagging for the last few weeks in a 10% range under this $88 level, if it wants to rip through $88 I will be lighter for now to give it the proper room (10% vs $80) as this is a bigger pattern that has been setting up for years. If there is a chance to get in lower vs $80 that would be a better play to load up. Time will tell as there is no rush to get into this pattern that has been setting up for half a decade.
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