Broad Market Outlook
We are flat for the year, which is quite crazy to think about, with all that is going on in the world, the Nasdaq is trading within a few points of where it started out the year.
In the last month the market has gifted us the equivalent of 3 years worth of trading returns in less then 30 trading days. As much fun as this party has been, we might need to switch to water and sober up. In most of the major index's we have been in an extremely steep uptrend for us who are long, its great.
Yet we do not want to get caught with our pants down as the market has endless excuses to put some red on the screens. Let's continue to take the foot off the gas pedal a bit and look to play some better defense.
SPY 300, Nasdaq 9,000, Dow Jones 25,000 are all major resistance levels going back years (except for Nasdaq "going back years"). If we can let the market pull back a few days and look to add on the first green day vs that prior low, that could be a very profitable game plan if we are patient enough to let the stock come to us, instead of trying to chase it.
Macro Rotation Outlook
250 is the new area of resistance in the Dow with 230 being support, we might need to shake 230 if we really want to push up through 250 in time.
The new range in the SPY is 270 to 300, let's see if SPY 270 can continue to hold up, its crazy looking at the market the down move doesn't look all that scary?
The trend is our friend until it isn't, we can see 9,000 is the new resistance level, however with this steep uptrend still holding on for dear life, seems like we need to break this uptrend and start something new.
MDY Mid Caps
270 was resistance that has turned into support, let's see if this week that story can continue.
IWM Small Caps
Small caps got a little 3 day breakout through the 125 level and came right back, which is no surprise. Ideally if we can hold up above 112 that could be a good sign.
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Would be a good sign if Tech can stay above 220 this week and continue to flag in this new 25 point range.
Very timid breakout of that 48 level, and as we know this sector is going to take some time, lets see if it can hold north of 40 during this pull back.
If VIS can hold up above 110 in this 10 point range, we could be looking to add up through 120 down the road.
Right now we can see a small level of resistance at 88 as telecom continues the sharp uptrend it has been on, however with no real support levels in sight, it could pull back a bit with ease.
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
We need to keep an eye on 100 to see if it continues to act as support.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
After the run Discretionary's have been on, the first key level of support to keep an eye on for is that 160 area.
We can see the battle ground of buyers and sellers are getting tighter and tighter as they continue to inch closer to the battle ground at 58.
We can see the 80 level of resistance continuing to form in the REIT sector, just need to give it some time.
Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
We can see how the sellers are still holding that 153 level down, if it can pull back into the 140 area, we could look to buy up.
Healthcare didn't have the legs to make it back to the retest, however just give it some time to flag and it will be back there in no time.
IBB Bio Tech
Bio's were the first major sector to hit new 52 week highs, however its showing us that its losing some steam, which is expected.
VPU continues to battle with this 128 area of resistance if it continues to pull back into 113, we can look for an area to DCA.
Big Picture Set Up
ZTS continues to flag under this $132 level vs $122, with most names so extended and hard to buy, ZTS is still showing us a clear bull flag.