Broad Market Outlook
If there was a record for number of screwbar set ups in one day, Thursdays CPI numbers takes the cake. As the crypto market was crashing and burning, our home base is showing us that we are not so correlated as some started to expect eariler this year.
Quite frankly these moves coupled with the 10 year finally breaking support to the down side, as Shake loves to remind me when I was wrong is starting to show its face that the short term high is in with an almost 8% drop on Thursday.
If you were in the market for a home, continue to let this 10 year fade and wait as long as you can to lock in that rate. If the 10 year can smoke the current pivot low at 3.6% there is not much stopping it to pull back into the low 3s.
Days like Thursday are great reminders as to why you want to have a market matching approach (M1) working no matter what so you can be apart of this monsterous days even if the active account is sitting with more cash then one would want.
But do not beat yourself up, as those 7-8% moves in most major sectors and 10-20% moves in some indivudal stocks only happen because on Wednesday the outlook was much more grime.
The real question to ponder is does this one tiny event lock in the short term low in the market or is the market too excited after a milder CPI number then what was expected?
In my two sense it is probably more of the later and to protect us either way, use Thursdays low as your out, if the market wants to push higher great, if its going to negate Thursdays low, its not going to be some tiny pull back and rip higher like most want to happen after a major run up.
During these amazing short term run ups are always great time to clean up your inventory, if you were trapped in a name that you forgot to put a stop in a month ago and are now close to even or up, dont give it back.
If you feel flat footed and want to chase, turn off that computer and please do anything else.
This week was a major win for the stock market and a massive blow to the crypto market that put a major whole in all of there standing principles. With time, one could suspect that those people who lived and died crypto will eventually have to find safer vehicles that will benefit our sand box.
But this is no time to show boat or point fingers at those who are getting crushed in that market because what goes around comes around. As Tim McGraw says "be humble and kind."
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