Big Picture Forced Liquidations

Broad Market Outlook

As the market this week was bouncing up off support as we continue to shift into a range bound/consolation type market. The crypto markets had a disastrous week. That are great reminders for us on the many things to avoid when investing our hard earned money (avoid leverage, avoid following the crowd, avoid the it can only go up mentality). 
As most new traders often have the memory of a gold fish when it comes to the change in investing themes, every new hot investment is always different this time, yet they rarely are.  A decade ago almost to the day another major bubble was bursting in another currency. 
Silver and Gold were the hot trades a few thousand days ago that was a topic on everyone's tongue. As always the parabolic moves shift once the clear sky positive news starts to get cloudy.
The silver bubble popped as the margin requirements were increased leaving investors to pony up cash they didn't have to begin with. That shifted the silver holders mindset from buy and hold as much as they can. To being forced out by there brokers (if lucky) as someone screamed fire in the movie theater. Or stubbornly trapped as those lofty prices to never be seen again hoping to get out for break even a decade later and still down 50%. 
Now that pool of traders were much smaller then the current topic at hand given you had to pay to trade, getting margin was not as easy, nor was information decimated at the rate it is today.
Learning some lessons from Antifragile, it is safe to say no matter how low that space continues to fall, most will eventually bounce back.  
Nassim Taleb brings up a point on the longer something is around, the more antifragile (strong) it becomes.
The stock market has been around for 100+ years, its safe to say it will be around for another 100 years, Bitcoin has been around for 20 years, it's safe to assume, it will still be here in another 2 decades. Scam coin that was made last week by some kid is as fragile as they come. 
Keeping it simple and focusing on simple technical analysis that has been working for 50 years will probably still be much easier over the next 50 years then, say, trying to gamble in the same space that everyone was saying to buy just a short while ago, that now they can't wait to get out for break even, just when they should be doing the opposite.
Always remember there is no one more foolish the someone caught in the crowd, 20 years ago, beanie babies were considered legitimate retirement assets for a short window of time. 
From Ben G





Macro Rotation Outlook

Dow Jones
MDY Mid Caps
IWM Small Caps

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Sector Rotation
Sensitive -  sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions. 

VGT Tech
VDE Energy
VIS Industrial
VOX Telecom


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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
VCR Consumer Discretionary
VFH Financials
Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
VHT Healthcare
IBB Bio Tech
VPU Utilities
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Big Picture Set Up
ABBV might be loosing a little steam up here as it continues to flag out, for now I will move on if it trades below $114. 
CMG is getting tight as it pulled into its trend line with a prior level of resistance forming around $1360, will look to take the $80 risk in this name if it wants to push above $1360. 
DHR put in a recent pivot low near the gap fill and so far is respecting that area, still looking to add up through $260 in time, if its not ready will take the profits if DHR decides to break below $245. 
MMC showed us that some buyers were there to hold up $132 for now that will be my exit in this swing. 
The 15 minute rule saved this trade that went from an almost 3% loss to being up more then 8%, to give it the real room would be vs that low from 3 days ago however this move is more then a gift then anything hence the very tight stop. 
SAGE inching right back to $76 will have to add simply to stay consistent with a stop vs $68 for now. 
We have been doing a good job picking up some SNAP up off support, myself doing a horrible job of taking any profits. For now we can see that $48 is the real out, yet shorter term one could give it vs $50. In time we will want to be looking to add through that $64 which has been resistance for a few months now. 
UBER is starting to sow us that $50 which was support is starting to turn into resistance, we just need to give it time and be ready to buy above $50 when it wants to trade higher. 
Traveling Experts

We have a few exciting experiences planned for the year ahead. We hope you find a trip that sparks your interest to come enjoy and network with other like minded members!  

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Can't wait to see you on the next trip!


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